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	<title>emortgagesblog.com &#187; HPI</title>
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		<title>Home Values Rose For the 4th Straight Month</title>
		<link>http://emortgagesblog.com/2011/10/home-price-index-july-rising.html</link>
		<comments>http://emortgagesblog.com/2011/10/home-price-index-july-rising.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Oct 2011 12:49:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jehoshua Shapiro</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Housing Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CoreLogic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home Price Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HPI]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The government is confirming what the private sector has already shown --  home values are on the rise.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- This material is non-exclusively licensed to Jehoshua Shapiro and may not be copied, reproduced, or sold in any form whatsoever.-->
<p><img style="float: right; margin-left: 10px; margin-right: 10px;" title="Home Price Index from April 2007 peak" src="http://bringtheblog.com/i/hpi-delta-from-peak-201107.png" alt="Home Price Index from April 2007 peak" width="216" height="302" /></p>
<p>The government is confirming what the private sector has already shown &#8212; &nbsp;home values are on the rise.</p>
<p>The Federal Home Finance Agency&#8217;s Home Price Index shows home values <a title="Home values rose 0.8 percent in July" href="http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/22633/JulyMonthly92211HPIF.pdf" target="_blank">rose 0.8% in July</a>.</p>
<p>July marks the fourth straight month that home values climbed and the&nbsp;FHFA&#8217;s Home Price Index is the latest in a series of &#8220;rising home values&#8221; reports &#8212; an encouraging trend for buyers and sellers in San Francisco and nationwide.</p>
<p>Last week, the S&amp;P Case-Shiller Index showed home value <a title="Case-Shiller July 2011" href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&amp;assetID=1245321043147" target="_blank">up nearly 1 percent</a> in July. CoreLogic <a title="CoreLogic shows home values rising" href="http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/news/corelogic-july-home-price-index-shows-fourth-consecutive-month-over-month-increase.aspx" target="_blank">reached a similar conclusion</a>.</p>
<p>Nationwide, values are back to their highest levels since November 2010. Clearly, the housing market in California is moving in the right direction.&nbsp;Or is it?</p>
<p>Although the data from the government and from private firms such as CoreLogic is encouraging, it&#8217;s also flawed. As such, we have to be careful about the conclusions we draw from the data.</p>
<p>The flaws of Home Price Index are glaring :</p>
<ol>
<li>Only homes backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac are included in the index. In today&#8217;s market, because of the FHA&#8217;s popularity, that leaves 1 of 3 homes &#8220;uncounted&#8221;.</li>
<li>Only home resales are counted. New home sales are omitted entirely.</li>
<li>The data comes with a 60-day delay. The October market is different from July&#8217;s.</li>
</ol>
<p>Despite these shortcomings, however, the Home Price Index remains relevant. It&#8217;s among the most through home valuation models and it&#8217;s often used by economists and policy-makers.</p>
<p>When the Home Price Index is rising, Wall Street and Capitol Hill take notice. For residents of &#8220;Main Street&#8221;, however, the data may not be as important. To get local, up-to-date market statistics , talk with a professional real estate agent.</p>
<p>Since peaking in April 2007, the FHFA&#8217;s Home Price Index is off 17.6 percent.</p>
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		<title>The Home Price Index Shows Some Regions Up, Some Regions Down</title>
		<link>http://emortgagesblog.com/2010/02/fhfa-home-price-index-december-2009.html</link>
		<comments>http://emortgagesblog.com/2010/02/fhfa-home-price-index-december-2009.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Feb 2010 13:47:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jehoshua Shapiro</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Home Price Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FHFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HPI]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Publishing on a 2-month lag, the Federal Home Finance Agency said home prices fell by 1.6 percent nationally in December.  And that's an average, of course.  Some regions performed well in December as compared to November, others didn't.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!-- This material is non-exclusively licensed to Jehoshua Shapiro and may not be copied, reproduced, or sold in any form whatsoever.-->
<p><img style="border: 1px solid black;" title="Monthly changes in Home Price Index Since April 2007" src="http://bringtheblog.com/i/hpi-monthly-change-200912.png" alt="Monthly changes in Home Price Index Since April 2007" width="430" height="310" /></p>
<p>Earlier this week, the private-sector Case-Shiller Index showed <a title="Case-Shiller December 2009 Report" href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&amp;blobcol=urldocumentfile&amp;blobtable=SPComSecureDocument&amp;blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3Ddownload.pdf&amp;blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&amp;blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&amp;blobkey=id&amp;blobheadername1=content-type&amp;blobwhere=1245206345483&amp;blobheadervalue3=abinary%3B+charset%3DUTF-8&amp;blobnocache=true" target="_blank">home prices slightly lower</a> between November and December.&nbsp; Thursday, the public-sector Home Price Index showed the same.</p>
<p>Publishing on a 2-month lag, the Federal Home Finance Agency said home prices fell by 1.6 percent nationally in December.&nbsp; And that&#8217;s an average, of course.&nbsp; <a title="FHFA Home Price Index December 2009" href="http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/15450/finalHPI22510.pdf" target="_blank">Some regions performed well</a> in December as compared to November, others didn&#8217;t.</p>
<ul>
<li>Values in the Middle Atlantic states improved slightly</li>
<li>Values in New England were essentially unchanged</li>
<li>Values in the Mountain states sagged, down 3.5%</li>
</ul>
<p>These aren&#8217;t just footnotes. They&#8217;re an important piece toward understanding what national real estate statistics really mean. In short, &#8220;national statistics&#8221; are just a compilation of a bunch of local statistics.</p>
<p>For example, if we dig deeper into the FHFA Home Price Index 70-page report, we find that cities like Terre Haute, IN, Buffalo, NY, and Amarillo, TX posted year-over-year home price gains. You won&#8217;t see that in a &#8220;national&#8221; report.</p>
<p>Furthermore, it&#8217;s a sure bet that those same cities, you could find neighborhoods that are thriving, and others that are not.&nbsp; Just because the city shows higher home values overall, it won&#8217;t necessarily be the case for every home in the city.</p>
<p>Every street in every neighborhood of every town in America has its own &#8220;local real estate market&#8221; and, in the end, that&#8217;s what should be most important to today&#8217;s buyers and sellers.&nbsp; National data helps identify trends and shape government policy but, to the layperson, it&#8217;s somewhat irrelevant.</p>
<p>So, when you need to know whether your home in Los Angeles is gaining or losing value, you can&#8217;t look at the national data.&nbsp; You have to look at your block &#8212; what&#8217;s selling and not selling &#8212; and start your valuations from there.</p>
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