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Category Archives: Weekly Review

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 27, 2010

Existing Home Sales (Nov 2009 - Nov 2010)Mortgage markets worsened again last week as the holiday-shortened sessions did little to buck recent momentum. Although Freddie Mac reported mortgage rates dropping 0.02% from the week prior, loan officers on the street will report the opposite. Rates did not fall last week.

Conforming mortgage rates in California moved higher for 7th straight week.

For rate shoppers and home buyers, it’s been a harrowing two months.  

Since the Federal Reserve announced its QE2 program November 3, 2010, mortgage rates have moved from all-time lows to 7-month highs. Mortgage payments now cost $38 more per month per $100,000 borrowed as compared to the day before the stimulus was announced.

Mortgage rates look poised to increase again. Here’s why.

A major reason why mortgage rates were so low, for so long, was that the U.S. economy was suffering. Consumer spending was slow, business forecasts were dour, and job growth was negative. These conditions lasted for longer than a year.

Lately, however, the conditions are changing:

  • Consumer spending is up 5 months in a row (Bloomberg)
  • Fannie Mae is boosting its economic outlook for 2011 (WSJ)
  • Job growth is slow, but positive (Reuters)

And, furthermore, housing appears to be on solid ground. Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales improved last month, and home supplies are dropping. This, too, is good for the economy, which, in turn, is bad for mortgage rates.

This week, don’t be surprised is mortgage rates rise again. The week is again shortened by holiday and there’s a host of new data that may signal economic improvement including Pending Home Sales, consumer confidence surveys and the Case-Shiller Index.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 20, 2010

Fed Funds Rate vs Mortgage Rates (2000-2010)Mortgage markets worsened again last week as belief in a U.S. recovery and concerns for inflation took hold on Wall Street.  Conforming mortgage rates rose in California for the 6th straight week.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 0.66% higher this week as compared to rates on November 11, but loan originators will tell you that figure is understated.

Real mortgage rates — mortgage rates available to everyday homeowners and buyers in Los Angeles are up by as much as a full percentage point since November, and loan costs are rising, too.

The Refi Boom of 2010 is over.

Last week, mortgage markets revolved around the Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC met Tuesday and voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within a target range of 0.000-0.250. This was expected. However, markets seemed to be surprised by the Fed’s take on inflation.

In its press release, the Fed said inflation is running too low to benefit the economy. Its policies, including the group’s $600 billion bond market program, may be meant to spark inflation, then. This would lead mortgage rates higher and Wall Street knows it.

Mortgage rates spiked after the Fed adjourned.

This week, with a sparse data schedule and trade volume thinning because of holidays, expect mortgage rates to be volatile.

Although rates are higher since 7 weeks ago, they remain low, historically. There’s still a chance to capitalize on the lowest mortgage rates in decades. If you haven’t refinanced this year and want to know what’s available, talk to your loan officer right away.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 13, 2010

Federal Reserve meets December 14 2010Mortgage markets worsened last week as the U.S. economy showed additional signs of strength; and global demand for mortgage bonds slipped.

Conforming mortgage rates rose in California and around the country for the fifth straight week. It’s a streak that’s been marked by volatile pricing that’s rendered rate shopping difficult.

Last week, lenders published as many as 5 rate sheets per day where, by comparison, over the past 12 months, lenders have averaged closer to 2 rate sheets per day.

This week, with a bevy of data set for release and a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, expect volatility to remain high. Wall Street remains undecided on the future of the U.S. economy and there will be plenty on information on which to trade:

  • Tuesday : Producer Price Index, Retail Sales
  • Wednesday : Consumer Price Index, Housing Market Index
  • Thursday : Housing Starts, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims

Despite the high impact of this week’s economic releases, though, it will be Tuesday’s FOMC meeting that sets the tone for the mortgage bond market and, consequently, for mortgage rates in Santa Rosa.

The Fed’s last meeting in early-November provided the spark to the recent rise in mortgage rates. In the group’s post-meeting press release, it acknowledged growth while committing $600 billion to bond markets. The move triggered a massive bond sell-off that has since pushed conforming mortgage rates to a 5-month high.

The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM ET Tuesday afternoon.

If you’re still floating a mortgage rate or have otherwise yet to lock, consider executing a rate lock agreement early in the week. Once the Federal Open Market Committee adjourns, mortgage rates could spike again. And, although rates are up since November, they remain historically low.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 6, 2010

Unemployment Rate 2007-2010Mortgage markets lost ground last week on growing optimism for the economy, a poor run for the dollar versus the euro, plus the lingering concerns that inflation will grip the U.S. long-term.

Conforming mortgage rates in California rose for the fourth week in a row, stymying rate shoppers and raising the effective cost of homeownership for new buyers in need of a mortgage.

After a spectacular run that drew 30-year fixed rates to near 4.00, mortgage rates have returned to their highest levels since late-June.

Last week was heavy on news. Bond traders were hit with the Beige Book; with the ADP Challenger Report; with the ISM Manufacturing Report; and, with Pending Home Sales data for October. Each release moved markets.

Only Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report kept mortgage rates from really soaring.

According to the government, 39,000 net new jobs were created in November, and September’s and October’s data was revised higher by a combined 38,000.  The sum of these figures fell well short of Wall Street expectations — investors has expected 146,000 net new jobs in November.

As a result, mortgage rates made their largest, intra-day improvement of the year Friday morning, although they slid higher through the afternoon. Rates fell 1/8 percent Friday as compared to Thursday and rate shoppers may see that momentum carry forward into this week.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a televised interview Sunday evening in which he said, among other things:

  1. “The fear of inflation is way overstated.”
  2. Additional bond market support is “certainly possible”.

Both comments should help to allay inflation concerns, and may lead mortgage rates lower this week. If you’re floating a mortgage rate, keep a watchful eye on markets and be especially wary if mortgage rates start to rise again. November was rough on mortgage bonds.

If December follows suit, expect mortgage rates to approach 6 percent.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 29, 2010

Unemployment Rate 2007-2010In a holiday-shortened week on Wall Street, mortgage markets improved on 3 of 4 days, but still posted its fourth consecutive losing week.

Unfortunately for rate shoppers and home buyers in California , last week’s 3 days of gains were mild improvements; the one day of deterioration was among the Top 10 worst days for mortgage bonds this year.

Mortgage rates in Santa Rosa are at their highest levels since mid-July. The Refi Boom is unwinding quickly.

Last week underscores the importance of the global community to the future of the U.S. mortgage market. Two of the main reasons why mortgage rates increased were non-domestic.

  1. Concerns for a full-blown North Korea/South Korea conflict lessened quickly
  2. The likelihood of a speedy, $85 billion bailout Ireland increased

The two events stemmed the typical safe-haven buying patterns that accompany geo-political and economic uncertainty, and drive down mortgage rates.

This week, mortgage rates may rise again.

First, Ireland’s bailout package was signed Sunday morning and that relieves some pressure on the European Union.  Second, this week’s economic releases should show that the U.S. economy is still expanding, and that U.S. consumers are still spending — both are tied to higher rates.

A sampling of the week’s releases include:

  • Tuesday : Case-Shiller Index; Consumer Confidence surveys
  • Thursday : Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims; Pending Home Sales
  • Friday : Non-Farm Payrolls; Unemployment Rate

If you haven’t locked a mortgage rate and are waiting for “the bottom”, remember that the mortgage market waits for no one. Rates are much higher since the start of November and look ready to rise even higher.  Call your loan officer and get your application in process this week.

The longer you wait, the higher that rates could go.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 22, 2010

CPI Oct 2009-2010Mortgage markets worsened last week as the U.S. dollar gave up ground in currency markets, and inflation concerns mounted. In response to the events, conforming mortgage rates in California rose for the third straight week.

Mortgage rates have now climbed by as much as half-percent since the start of the month, and Freddie Mac reports average loan fees to be higher, too.

The 7-month rally in rates may be nearing its end. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at a 4-month high after reaching an all-time low just 3 weeks ago.

The abrupt change in rates makes for an interesting study in expectations, and how they can influence a market.

Remember, inflation is bad for mortgage rates. Inflation devalues the dollar which, as a consequence, devalues repayments made to mortgage bond holders. As a result, when inflation is present, mortgage bonds tend to sell-off which causes mortgage rates to rise.

This is what’s been happening these past 3 weeks. However, we’re not in an inflationary environment. To the contrary:

  1. The Federal Reserve has said inflation is too low to be economically healthy
  2. Last week, the Cost of Living posted its lowest year-over-year gain in history

But mortgage rates are rising anyway. This is because global investors believe the Fed’s most recent market intervention — a $600 billion bond purchase program — will later lead to inflation. Just on the expectation, markets are behaving like inflation is already here.

This week is holiday-shortened, and rates should remain volatile. There’s a bevy of data including the Existing and New Home Sales reports, consumer confidence data, and the FOMC Minutes from the November 3 meeting.

If you haven’t locked a mortgage rate, consider locking one today. Rates have farther to climb than the fall.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : November 15, 2010

Inflation and mortgage ratesIn a holiday-shortened trading week, mortgage markets tanked last week, casting doubt on whether the bond market’s 7-month bull run will continue. Fears of inflation caused conforming mortgage rates to rise in California.

Last week marked the first sizable mortgage rate increase over the course of 7 days since April.

The biggest reason why rates rose last week was because of concerns that the Federal Reserve’s latest round of stimulus will devalue the U.S. dollar.

The Fed pledged an additional $600 billion to the bond markets two weeks ago and, to meet this obligation, the group will have to, quite literally, print new money.

It’s Supply and Demand. With more dollars in circulation, every existing dollar is worth less.

It’s also inflationary.

As the Fed’s pledge ties back to mortgage rates, remember that mortgage bondholders are paid in U.S. dollars. So, if those dollars are expected to be worth less in the future, we would expect mortgage bond demand to fall. And that’s exactly what happened last week — investors rarely clamor for assets whose value drops over time.

The falling demand dropped down prices, and pushed up yields. Mortgage rates spiked.

This week, the trend could continue. There’s a lot of inflation-signaling data on tap:

  • Monday : Retail Sales
  • Tuesday : Producer Price Index; Consumer Confidence; Housing Market Index
  • Wednesday : Consumer Price Index; Housing Starts
  • Thursday : Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims

Analysts are calling for lukewarm data this week; none of the releases is expected to show strong growth. If the analysts are wrong, look for rates to rise again.

Momentum is moving away from rate shoppers. If you’ve yet to lock in a rate, consider doing it now.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 18, 2010

Housing starts and building permitsMortgage markets worsened last week in back-and-forth trading, pushing conforming mortgage rates higher on the week.

Despite the uptick, however, Freddie Mac reports that rates in California still managed to make new, all-time lows for the third week in a row. The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now down 1.02% since April 2010.

The United States is experiencing a Refi Boom.

As compared to 6 months ago, a new, $200,000 home loan costs $124 less per month in principal + interest.

This week, monthly payments may fall some more. It all depends on data.

Early in the week, housing data takes center stage. The National Association of Home Builders releases its Housing Market Index this morning, and, Tuesday, the government prints September’s Housing Starts figures.  Both reports figure to influence the bond market.

Strong readings should lead mortgage rates higher; weak ones should lead them lower. Economists expect weakness.

That said, the biggest story of the week — and the one with the best chance of changing rates — could stem from the Federal Reserve.

Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Ben Bernanke, have observed the recent U.S. economy and have openly discussed the use of “non-conventional means” to spur it forward. As the rhetoric increases, it’s widely believed that the Fed will act soon, and that the central bank’s plan will include new commitments to U.S. Treasury debt, and, possibly, to mortgage-backed bonds.

Speculation of the Fed’s next move has sparked mortgage bond demand which, in turn, has helped drive down mortgage rates. An official Fed announcement could push rates lower still.

For now, though, mortgage rates are as low as they’ve been in history. Rate shoppers have two choices. (1) Lock in a today’s low rates, or (2) Wait and hope that rates fall further. Ultimately, rates may fall, but once they start rising, they’ll likely rise quickly.

It’s a gamble you may not wish to take.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 12, 2010

Unemployment Rate 2007-2010Mortgage markets improved last week on mixed messages about the economy, and a growing belief that the government will move to stimulate the economy.

Conforming mortgage rates in California eased lower.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage market survey, average mortgage rates nationwide fell to new all-time lows last week. On the other side of that point, however, is that the accompanying “points” for today’s low rates have climbed to their highest levels of 2010.

In other words, mortgage rates are down, but closing costs are up.

There were two main stories driving mortgage rates last week. The first was the Federal Reserve. 

Although nothing has been said specifically, markets are speculating that the government will add new layers of market support to spark the economy.

The prevailing thought is that — if there’s intervention — the Fed will buy treasuries and mortgage bonds, driving up prices and pushing down yields. Rates dropped last week in anticipation of such a move.

The second factor in falling mortgage rates was Friday’s jobs report.

Economists expected the economy to shed 5,000 jobs in September. Instead, it lost 95,000, anchored by the elimination of temporary census workers and job losses in local governments. The private sector didn’t fare so poorly, adding sixty-four thousand jobs. However, that, too, fell short of expectations.

The results contributed to a mortgage market rally already in-process.

This week, there’s a number of releases that should keep mortgage rates on the move — up and down — including Fed Minutes (Tuesday), Producer Price Index (Thursday), and Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and a confidence survey (Friday).

Mortgage rates are low and may not stay that way. If you’re floating a mortgage rate, or wondering whether now is the time to lock, talk to you loan officer. Rates are expected be volatile this week.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : October 4, 2010

Jobs in focus this weekFor the third straight week, mortgage markets showed little conviction in the face of contrasting data. Mortgage bonds ended the week slightly better, but mortgage rates did not.

Conforming mortgage rates in California were up-and-down all week before ending the week with a slight worsening. The inter-day volatility has come to characterize the current mortgage market.

In part, rates are jumpy because of data; it’s unclear when the economy is expanding or contraction — despite the “official call” of the recession’s end in June 2009.

Consider the conflicting reports from last week. Separate Consumer Confidence reports showed sentiment falling in September, but on the other hand:

In other words, the economy is in recovery, but the average Santa Rosa citizen isn’t believing it. That causes purse-strings to stay tight, thereby retarding economic growth.

Wall Street is struggling with the contrast, and constantly changing its outlook.  It’s making mortgage rates tough to pin down and this week should reflect that. In addition to a home sales report and new consumer confidence data, the government prints its market-moving Non-Farm Payrolls report.

More commonly called “the jobs report”, Non-Farm Payrolls details the workforce, its size, and its Unemployment Rate.  There’s expected to be little change from August, a month considered “fair” by recent employment standards. If the jobs report shows improvement and/or strength, look for mortgage rates to rise. If the report does deterioration and/or weakness, look for mortgage rates to fall.

The Non-Farm Payrolls will be released Friday at 8:30 AM ET.

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