Mortgage markets worsened last week on a mixed bag of economic data. Inflation data came in soft, but so did the start of the holiday shopping season.

For the first time in a month, mortgage rates worsened last week, adding roughly 0.125 percent on conforming fixed-rate products, and a little bit more on ARMs.

Despite rates worsening, there was still some good news for home buyers and would-be refinancers. Mortgage rate volatility was markedly lower than in recent weeks. You could shop for mortgage rate last week and actually take your time about it.

This is in stark contrast to the last month or so over which mortgage rates changed every few hours, on average.

This week, though, because a heavy data calendar is combining with a holiday-shortened trading week, rates aren’t likely to stay as tame.

• Monday: Existing Home Sales
• Tuesday: Consumer Confidence, Home Price Index, Fed Minutes
• Wednesday: New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays

Each of these data points are market-movers by themselves. In tandem, however, they could really shake things up. Then, at the tail end of the week, markets will react to Black Friday.

If stores look full Friday and initial receipts appear high, stock markets should rise at the expense of bonds, leading mortgage rates higher.

Additionally, expect that mortgage rate changes will be amplified because of low trading volume. This could work in your favor, or out of your favor — depending on the market direction.

With mortgage rates at such low levels and unlikely to fall much further, locking a rate is advisable. If you choose to float, though, keep your loan officer on speed dial because when rates do rise, they’re going to rise quickly.

For today’s home buyers and homeowners that can manage the higher monthly payments, 15-year fixed rate mortgage rates look attractive as compared to comparable 30-year products.

The 15-year/30-year interest rate spread is near its 5-year high.

Despite lower rates, however, homeowners opting for a 15-year fixed mortgage should be prepared for its higher monthly payments. This is because the principal balance of a 15-year fixed is repaid in half the years as with a standard, 30-year amortizing product.

As compared to 30-year terms, 15-year products repay 3 times as much principal each month.

Versus a 30-year, 15-year fixed mortgages have a few downsides worth noting. The first is that, because 15-year mortgages are heavy on principal and light on interest, homeowners who itemize tax returns may have to claim a smaller mortgage interest tax deduction at tax time.

Another negative is that the sheer size of the payment. If you run into fiscal trouble down the road, the only way to reduce the monthly obligation is to refinance into a 30-year product and that costs money to do.

In other words, be sure you can manage the payments over the long-term before you opt for a 15-year term. If you can manage it, though, the rewards are tangible.

At today’s rates, a 15-year fixed and 30-year fixed costs $230 extra per $100,000 borrowed.

A “Housing Start” is a home on which construction has started and, for the 4th straight month, national single-family housing starts held steady last month.

When the demand for homes grows faster than the number of homes for sale, prices increase.

As recent home sales data confirms, buyers currently outpace sellers and one consequence of this is an increase in multiple-offer situations this year.

It’s no wonder home prices are up across so many neighborhoods.

October’s Housing Starts report is yet another piece of housing data foreshadowing rising home prices into 2010.

Building Permits were also down in October, a potential demand-to-supply imbalance magnifier. Without permits, there’s no future construction. This drains supply. Meanwhile, tax breaks and low rates tend to stimulate demand and, right now, we’ve got both.

Therefore, so long as demand remains semi-constant into the New Year, expect home prices to rise.

In many markets, they already are.

A conforming mortgage is one that, quite literally, conforms to the mortgage guidelines set forth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Each year, the government sets the maximum allowable loan size for a conforming mortgage, based on “typical” housing costs nationwide.

Loans in excess of this amount are typically called “jumbo”.

While home prices increased from 1980 to 2006, so did conforming loan limits. Since then, however, as home prices have dipped, the conforming loan limit has held.

Now, in 2010, for the 5th consecutive year, the government set $417,000 as the nation’s conforming mortgage loan limit.

The 2010 conforming loan limits, as released by the government, are:

• 1-unit properties : $417,000
• 2-unit properties : $533,850
• 3-unit properties : $645,300
• 4-unit properties : $801,950

But conforming loan limits don’t apply to all U.S. geographies equally. As a result of various economic stimuli since 2008, the government now considers certain regions around the country “high-cost” areas. In these areas, conforming loan limits can range to $729,750.

There are less than 200 such areas nationwide. The complete list is published on the Fannie Mae website.

APR is an acronym for Annual Percentage Rate. It’s a government-mandated calculation meant to simplify the comparison of mortgage options.

A loan’s APR can always be found in the top-left corner of the Federal Truth-In-Lending Disclosure.

Because APR is expressed as a percentage, many people confuse it for the loan’s interest rate. It’s not. APR represents the total cost of borrowing over the life of a loan. “Interest rate” is the basis for monthly mortgage repayments.

The main advantage of APR is that it allows an “apples-to-apples” comparison between loan products.

As an example, a 5.000 percent mortgage with origination points and fees will almost certainly have a higher APR than a 5.500 percent mortgage with zero fees. In this sense, APR can help a borrower determine which loan is least costly long-term.

However, APR is not without its shortcomings.

First, different banks includes different fees into their APR calculations. By definition, this spoils APR as a choose-between-lenders, apples-to-apples comparison method.

And, second, when calculating APR, “life of the loan” is assumed to be full-term. When a 30-year mortgage pays off in 7 years or fewer — as most of them do — APR comparisons are rendered moot.

In other words, APR is just one metric to compare mortgages — it’s not the only metric. The best way to compare your mortgage options is to review all the loan terms together and determine which is most suitable.

Mortgage markets improved last week as foreign buyers of mortgage debt helped to push mortgage rates to a 4-week low.

It marked the 3rd consecutive week that rates improved, breathing extra life into this year’s ongoing Refi Boom.

Fixed-rate, conforming mortgage rates fell about 0.125 percent on the week. ARMs did about the same.

There wasn’t much data to move mortgage rates last week; investors worked mostly on momentum and trends. However, the Friday University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey release garnered some attention.

After worsening in August and September, consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month in October. Analysts worry about what it could mean to the economy. Holiday Shopping season is here and consumer spending fuels the economy. If households hold the purse strings tight, our nation’s budding economic recovery may stall.

In a scenario like that, employment rates won’t rebound so fast, but rate shoppers might not mind. Slower-than-expected economic growth tends to suppress mortgage rates, helping to improve home affordability overall.

This week, data comes back into focus.

At 8:30 AM ET today, the government will release October’s Retail Sales report. This one should be closely watched for its ability to change rates. A weak report should drag rates down, and a strong one should push rates up.

Then, on Tuesday and Wednesday, look for PPI and CPI — two key inflation indices. Inflation causes mortgage rates to rise so if either of these reports comes in hotter-than-expected, rates will almost certainly rise.

And, lastly, also on Wednesday, we’ll get the Housing Starts report for October. Don’t expect the markets to move on this one, but keep an eye on the data anyway. Housing markets remain crucial to economic recovery.

Despite rates hovering near recent lows, remember that markets change quickly. A rate quote from the morning is rarely valid by the afternoon and, when rates rise, rates rise fast.

For the eighth straight consecutive month, national foreclosure activity in the U.S. was dominated by a small set of states.

As reported by RealtyTrac.com, more than half of October’s foreclosure-related activity came from just 4 states:

1. California
2. Florida
3. Illinois
4. Michigan

The remaining Top 10 states in terms of total foreclosure activity included Arizona, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, New Jersey, and Maryland.

Foreclosures are up 19 percent from last October, but a deeper look at the RealtyTrac report revealed two positive developments for the housing market.

1. Foreclosure activity is down 3 percent from last month
2. Foreclosures per Household decreased in 9 of the 10 most heavily concentrated states

Furthermore, Nevada’s foreclosure pace is down 4% from last year. This is a big deal because Nevada has long led the nation in foreclosure-related activity. Until last month, Nevada’s year-to-year foreclosure rate hadn’t fallen in more than 4 years.

It’s too soon to say that the foreclosure market is drying up, but bargains are getting harder to come by. First-time buyers and bona fide investors alike have been snapping up property at a furious pace.

According to an industry trade group, distressed homes account for nearly one-third of home resale activity.

That said, buying foreclosures isn’t for everyone.

For one, properties are often sold as-is and may be defective. The cost of repairs may negate “the deal” or “the steal” — depending on the cost of the home.

Secondly, closing on a foreclosed home can be a 3-month long process. This is because banks rarely process home sale paperwork as fast as a “person” would. A 3-month timeframe may not fit your schedule.

In the end, fundamentally, buying a foreclosed home is the same as buying a “regular” home — there’s a contract and a closing. Most of the steps in the middle, however, are different.

Read the complete foreclosure report and take a peek at the foreclosure heat maps on the RealtyTrac website. If you like what you see, talk to your real estate agent about what to do next.

There’s still good deals in the foreclosure market, but based on October’s data, they may not last through the winter.

Despite the economy’s improvement and prodding from Congress, banks don’t seem ready to open their purse strings just yet.

Nationally, mortgage approval standards are tightening.

The data comes from a quarterly survey the Federal Reserve sends to its member banks. The Fed asks senior bank loan officers around the country whether “prime” residential mortgage guidelines had tightened in the last 3 months.

For the period July-September 2009:

• Roughly 1 in 4 banks said guidelines tightened
• Roughly 3 in 4 banks said guidelines were “basically unchanged”

Just one bank said its guidelines had loosened.

Combine the Fed’s survey with recent underwriting updates from the FHA and from Fannie Mae and it becomes clear that mortgage lenders are much more cautious about their loans than they were, say, 2 years ago.

Today’s borrowers face a host of hurdles including:

• Higher minimum FICO scores
• Larger downpayment requirements for purchases
• Larger equity positions for refinances
• Lower debt-to-income ratios

In other words, mortgage rates may stay low into 2010, but that won’t matter to homeowners that don’t meet minimum eligibility standards. With each passing quarter, that list gets smaller.

Therefore, if you’re on the fence about whether now is a good time to buy a home, remember that, along with an increase in mortgage approval standards, home values are rising, too.

Acting sooner is probably better than acting later.

Consider this a last call for FHA Streamline Refinances. Starting next Tuesday, the popular rate-lowering program gets strict on borrowers.

There’s 5 days left.

Under the current streamline refi guidelines, FHA homeowners have minimal program eligibility requirements.

• FICO scores must be 620 or higher
• The refinance must provide a “tangible benefit”
• No mortgage lates allowed in the last 12 months

Beyond that, everything else goes, practically. There’s no income, asset, or job verification with the current FHA Streamline program. Neither is there an appraisal requirement. It doesn’t matter if you’re 50% underwater.

Until next week, that is.

Beginning November 17, FHA Streamline Refinance applicants must show evidence of income and employment, plus proof of cash required to close. Furthermore, the FHA is limited loan-to-values to 97.75% for homeowners that want to “roll closing costs” into their mortgage.

In areas of declining home values, this may render refinancing impossible.

There’s more changes, too, as highlighted by the Federal Housing Commissioner. Read up for yourself, or ask a mortgage professional for help.

If you’re a homeowner and you’re currently financed through the FHA, it may be prudent to explore the possibility of an FHA Streamline Refi. Mortgage rates are low right now and FHA guidelines are loose.

Starting next week, FHA Streamlines will be a completely different beast.

Mortgage markets were extremely volatile last week, carving out a wide range between Monday and Friday.

Thankfully for rate shoppers, the overall momentum was positive.

Mortgage rates fell for the second time in as many weeks. Rates still sit higher versus their early-October lows.

For pure “news”, last week was a busy one:

• The Federal Reserve held the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000 percent
• The Unemployment Rate crossed 10 percent
• The First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit was extended to April 2010

Combined, the 3 events reinforced the growing belief on Wall Street that the U.S. economy is in recovery, but not yet out of the woods. This particular philosophy has been excellent for mortgage rates, helping to hold conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rates near 5.250 percent since the start of the year.

It helped rates last week, too. But low rates aren’t without threats.

For one, the Fed’s vote to hold the Fed Funds Rate near 0.000 percent will eventually spark inflation concerns. When it does, mortgage rates will rise. That won’t be this week, though.

Actually, nothing may happen this week — there’s not much data to release. Apart from a retail report, a confidence survey and some Fed speakers, the calendar is bare. That, and Wednesday is a federal holiday.

However, without data, markets often trade on things like geopolitics, or energy concerns, or momentum. In other words, don’t be lulled into thinking rates won’t change this week.

At least for now, the mortgage rates look good. By the end of the week, that may not be the case.